Treasury says no cash for GM, Chrysler merger talks stalled, Renault hookup rumors persist

The tumultuous storyline of the GM - Chrysler merger reads like a script fit for Hollywood. Both need each other to survive.
Neither can make it alone.

But parties on both sides have a lot to lose.

And with today's news from the Treasury, the White House — and even Renault — the story gets messier by the minute.

Will they? Won't they?
Read on..



Yesterday, it seemed a forgone conclusion that General Motors and Chrysler LLC would merge within the next month, despite the consequences for nearly all Chrysler's models.

Now, the US Treasury and the Bush administration are adamant, saying they will not broker a merger deal or heed GM CEO Rick Wagoner's request for more money. Speaking with Reuters, a Bush administration official said that the "Treasury is not negotiating with the automakers, the administration is working to get the $25 billion Congress already authorized to the industry."

Instead, the Bush administration and the Treasury will speed the distribution of $25 billion in federally-backed, low-interest loans, drawn from an aid package approved by Congress last month.

Automotive News reports that both GMAC and Chrysler Financial - finance agencies owned jointly by GM and Chrysler's owner, Cerberus Capital Management — would qualify to sell their distressed assets to the Treasury under the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

"An unmanageable disaster" for Rust Belt states
While the sale of troubled debt will help GM's overall cashflow, it doesn't help the underlying problem that drove GM to seek Chrysler in the first place: a lack of financing. Without new borrowing or asset sales, GM is in danger of running dangerously low on cash in 2009, analysts have said.

Hoping to draw attention to the dire need for capital, the governors of Michigan, New York, Ohio, Kentucky, Delaware and South Dakota wrote the Bush administration in a plea for further assistance. Facing pressure from a surge of unemployment claims and a decline in state tax revenue, the "economic crisis" facing automakers "threatens to create an unmanageable disaster at the state level," the letter said.

Michigan's congressional delegation — lead by Energy and Commerce Committee chair John Dingell — has also lobbied the Bush administration to free up funds for the Big Three.

Ford joins the bailout fray, seeking "degree of parity"
And just when this couldn't get more complicated, here comes Ford. Reuters reports that FoMoCo has been angling for their own piece of the financial aid pie. If the government provides a direct injection of capital into either GM or Chrysler, Ford want their fair share as well.

Speaking with reporters, Mark Fields, Ford's president of the Americas said the company wants to "make sure that whatever happens, there is a degree of parity."

But for now, any aid — or merger negotiations — will be delayed until after Election Day.

So what happens now?
With the GM-Chrysler talks stalled, Renault pops back into the picture. As NMM reported two weeks ago, French automaker Renault has expressed interest in buying Chrysler's Jeep division outright from Cerberus.

Recently, Renault has backed away from the table, playing down rumors of a three-way partnership between Chrysler, Renault and it's Japanese partner Nissan Motor Corporation.

Nonetheless, the lack of progress with General Motors opens the door to new talks between Cerberus and Renault. Sources close to the early discussion said that Cerberus has considered a deal with Renault and Nissan as a favorable alternative to a full buyout of Chrysler by GM.

The sources declined to be named as they were not authorized to discuss the private talks. General Motors and Cerberus both declined to comment.

[RTS, AN]

Report: GM-Chrysler merger likely to decimate Chrysler lineup, trigger more layoffs

The fallout from a merger between General Motors and Chrysler LLC will lead to the closure of many as half of Chrysler's factories and the elimination of nearly all Chrysler models, according to a report released by consulting firm Grant Thornton LLP.

The report comes a day after General Motors canceled a $2 billion program to replace its trio of aging full-size SUVs and Chrysler culled its two full-size hybrid SUVs after only three months of production.

Merger and more layoffs seem inevitable
Despite the gloomy forecast, a GM / Chrysler merger seems highly likely at this point. Reuters reports that GM and Chrysler have resolved the major issues in a merger agreement and that the final form of a deal will depend on financing and federal support.

The New York Times reports that the Department of Energy was working to release $5 billion in government-backed low-interest loans to GM so it could complete a deal with Cerberus Capital Management, the majority shareholder of Chrysler LLC. The $5 billion in loans would come directly from a $25 billion pool of funds approved last month by Congress in an effort help Detroit retool as a maker of more fuel-efficient cars.

And while a merger may save the two embattled automakers, it most certainly will not save all their employees.

Speaking with Automotive News, Kimberly Rodriguez, principal of Grant Thornton's automotive practice said that a deal also could result in a loss of 100,000 to 200,000 jobs at the two automakers, their suppliers and other industry shareholders.

According to the report, the majority of job cuts would come as most of Chrysler model lineup is phased out. Chrysler's sedans have failed to outsell their domestic competitors and both the Dodge and Jeep division are heavily invested in SUVs and light trucks.

Massive consolidation of models, factories
Currently, Chrysler operates 14 factories, with two of them scheduled to close at year's end. During the summer, Chrysler has offered its Viper model lineup for sale, along with the Detroit plant where they are made.

In the report, Grant Thornton says that four more factories could close in the aftermath of a merger with GM. Those on the hit list produce the Chrysler Sebring and the Dodge Avenger in Michigan, the Jeep Liberty and Dodge Nitro in Toledo, Ohio, the Dodge Ram in St.Louis, Mo. and Dodge's heavy-duty truck plant in Saltillo, Mexico.

As production of these models wound down, a second wave of layoffs would then hit the third-party suppliers that provide transmissions, windows, dashboard assemblies — all of the primary components unique to each Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep model.

All told, the lost work to these suppliers would put hundreds of companies at risk. Up to 50,000 additional non-Chrysler jobs could be lost if Chrysler were to close the plants Grant Thornton expects.

Timing is critical; contraction is inevitable
If a GM-Chrysler merger is completed, it may take years to phase out all of the models listed in the Grant Thornton report. Some platforms may be eliminated through attrition; left in production until they cease to turn a profit. Some plants could be closed as early as the holiday shutdown and others could take years to close, said Rodriguez.

It is, in your humble author's opinion, a "damned if you do, if you don't" scenario.

Neither GM or Chrysler can survive alone in this market. While Chrysler has more cash on its books, they are in the worst position to capitalize on high gas prices. Worse yet, they lack the resources to improve their CAFE rating without aid. And while GM has a more fuel-efficient lineup, they are burning through their cash on hand at an alarming rate.

If either fails, far more jobs could be lost than those through the merger of these two former titans.

For more punditry on this unholy mess:
NYT: Views on a GM-Chrysler merger

[AN]

Friday, Bloody Friday: Chrysler to cut 25 percent of salaried workforce

Not to oversell the situation, but we may very well be witnessing the end times for Chrysler as an automaker.

One in four salaried workers at Chrysler will be out of a job by year's end, according to a statement released by Chrysler this morning.

The statement did not identify how many jobs the automaker will eliminate but spokesman Michael Palese said the cuts will total 25 percent of the company's salaried workforce.

According its own figures, Chrysler employs nearly 17,300 salaried workers. So today's cuts may total more than 4,300 jobs.
The first round of job cuts will come with voluntary retirement and employee buyout offers, according to the statement. Even still, layoffs are expected to come before the end of the year.

Discretionary spending and operating overhead will also be cut to the bone as Chrysler's owner, Cerberus Capital Management negotiates for a potential sale to General Motors. As reported earlier, Cerberus is also courting Renault for a potential sale of the Jeep division.

A hailstorm of pink slips
Today's news comes a month after Chrysler cut 1,000 salaried jobs and a day after the announcement that it would close its plant in Newark, Del., and cut a full shift from the Toledo, Ohio Jeep plant, trimming 1,825 more jobs in the process.

Since February 2007, Chrysler has eliminated 35,000 jobs. GM is also rumored to announce another round of salaried job cuts by the end of the year.

Speaking with Bloomberg, Dennis Virag, president of Michigan-based Automotive Consulting Group said Chrysler and General Motors have to do all they can to stem the outflow of cash from the organization.

Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli released a statement attributing the latest job cuts to the fastest contraction ever in auto industry sales. "These are truly unimaginable times for our industry," said Nardelli in the statement. "We continue to be in the most difficult economic period most of us can remember."

Doubts emerge over Renault deal
Meanwhile, Reuters has reported that Renault is downplaying rumors of a potential partnership between Chrysler, Renault and its Japanese partner Nissan. Renault had recently expressed interest in purchasing Chrysler's Jeep division; the reaction by Renault may be a sign that the French automaker is no longer interested in the Jeep lineup.

Speaking with Reuters, UBS analyst Tatsuo Yoshida said Nissan and Renault have little incentive to spend the human and fiscal resources needed to aid the ailing American automaker.

[Chrysler, AN]

Cerberus courting all bidders, may break up Chrysler, Jeep divisions

Just weeks after Chrysler's EV dog and pony show, majority stakeholder Cerberus Capital Management is courting a deal an effort to sell their stake in Chrysler LLC to General Motors, according to the Wall Street Journal and Reuters.

According to the Wall Street Journal, GM execs are receptive to the notion of a buyout and want to close the deal by the end of the month. Meanwhile, Reuters is reporting that French automaker Renault S.A is pursuing their own deal to purchase Chrysler's Jeep division, widely regarded as the single most valuable asset in Chrysler's portfolio.

Both Reuters and the Wall Street Journal report bankers are encouraging a GM-Chrysler deal. J.P. Morgan is the largest holder of Chrysler debt and is also a major banker for GM.

But here's where things get complicated.

Cerberus is not interested in exiting the auto business. Cerberus wants to continue to own a stake in a future Chrysler - GM conglomerate. This has become a point of contention for some board members at GM who have as yet gone unnamed.

Plan B? Sell Chrysler a la carte
Reuters has reported that if a full buyout cannot be agreed upon, GM may instead choose to pick at the bones of the Chrysler portfolio. GM has expressed interest in buying Chrysler's minivan line — a niche Chrysler pioneered some 25 years ago and one where GM has had trouble competing ever since.

GM may also buy Chrysler's truck manufacturing plant in Coahuila, Mexico – a purchase that seems at odds with the GM's decision in July to idle the Oshawa, Ontario truck plant.

Other potential sales and mergers include spinning off Chrysler Financial to merge with GMAC, General Motor's captive finance unit. Cerberus currently owns a controlling 51 percent stake. Alternatively, Cerberus may buy out GM's remaining 49 percent share to sweeten a struggling buyout deal.

Chrysler's MOPAR parts division is rumored to be for sale. So too is Chrysler's engineering division, which recently unveiled a plug-and-play electric-gasoline drivetrain the company says will be on the road by 2010.

All of these deals — and the future of Chrysler as an automaker — hinge on whether Cerberus decides to sell the company off piecemeal and whether GM, Renault and other bidders can secure financing to complete their acquisitions.

Shortly after this blog was launched, I expressed my doubts that Cerberus would treat Chrysler as a long-term investment and whether Chrysler itself could survive. That was before the near total seizure of inter-bank lending and the worst month of retail car sales in 15 years.

While the ink has yet to dry on any of these deals, the decision by Cerberus to start shopping now speaks volumes. If Chrysler has any future at all, it will likely be one far removed from it's Hemi-powered days of glory. Which — to nostalgic old salts like me — is an awful thought to consider.

[RTS,WSJ]

Chrysler unveils 3 EV prototypes, will enter EV market by 2010

A few weeks after this blog set sail, I wrote at length about the difficulties Chrysler would face and the cause for concern that majority owner Cerberus Capital Management would simply dismantle the company and sell it off piecemeal.

While the storm clouds have yet to fully part, today's announcement is precisely the type of good news the market has waited months to hear.

After a brief preview on CNBC yesterday, Chrysler LLC unveiled a trio of electric vehicle prototypes this morning.

* The Dodge EV, an all-electric sports car developed with British automaker Lotus.
* The Chrysler EV, an extended-range electric vehicle based on the Chrysler Town & Country minivan.
* The Jeep EV, an extended-range electric vehicle based on the Jeep Wrangler Unlimited.


Chrysler said it would bring one of the three prototypes to market in 2010 -- precisely when Chevrolet will start selling the Volt plug-in electric sedan.

The Dodge EV sports coupe — based off the Lotus Europa — takes direct aim at the Tesla roadster, relying on a 26 killowatt-hour lithium-ion battery pack to power the car's electric drivetrain. Chrysler claims a driving range of 150 to 200 miles and a 0-60 time under 5 seconds.

The Chrysler EV and Jeep EV both use a drivetrain similar in concept to that of the Volt. Electric power drives the wheels at all speeds. When the on-board battery is depleted, a small gasoline engine drives a generator to simultaneously recharge the battery pack and power the vehicle's electric motor. An AC-to-DC converter is included to allow overnight charging via a 110 or 220-volt power outlet.

Chrysler chose the Town & Country minivan as the benchmark vehicle for developing a front-wheel-drive setup, while the Jeep Wrangler was used to explore use of an electric drivetrain in a body-on-frame SUV.

And lest the idea of an electric-powered trail-blazing SUV sound preposterous, think for a moment of the advantages. Instant torque at zero rpm from an engine that doesn't mind which way it's oriented. No noise for your spotter to shout instructions over.

And the fuel savings are substantial. Chrysler claims that with approximately eight gallons of gasoline, both EVs have a range of 400 miles, including 40 miles of zero fuel-consumption, zero-emissions, all-electric operation.

The end goal of Chrysler's EV program is to build a "plug-n-play" electric-gasoline drivetrain that can be offered across the entire Chrysler range.

To that end, Chrysler has launched a new web site to spread the word on the company's electric and extended range electric vehicle development programs. Seeing as how Chrysler is ostensibly betting the company's future on electric power, we'll be keeping a close eye on future developments.

[Sources: Chrysler LLC, CNBC, AN, AO, MT]

EDITORIAL: Will this be Chrysler's last dance?

Sales figures are in for the first half of the year and suffice to say, 2008 is shaping up to be the worst year for US auto sales in nearly two decades.

Judging by the headlines, Chrysler seems to be most at risk of running aground in the turbulent economic tide. Sales at the Pentastar brand are down 23 percent from a year ago, despite a blitz of sales incentives geared toward consumers spooked by soaring gas prices.

Chrysler's leasing arm has shut down and Chase — one of the nation's largest underwriters of auto loans — has followed suit, refusing to cover loans for Chrysler products. Analysts have responded with muted skepticism, noting that any benefit from fewer loan delinquencies will be offset by slower sales.

So the fundamental question remains. In a market that couldn't be more hostile, is Cerberus Capital Management willing to invest in Chrysler for the long haul? Or are they angling to sell the brand for scrap value?

In many ways, it's an impossible question to answer without having all the facts.
But as one reads between the lines, the outlook grows bleak.

Despite loudly trumpeting gross earnings of $1.1 billion in the first half of 2008, CCM did not disclose their net income for the same period, nor are they obligated to. Daimler AG, which owns the remaining 19.9 percent of Chrysler, provides some insight into the real health of the company.

In their own quarterly report released last month, Daimler noted that Chrysler lost about $500 million in the first quarter of 2008. JPMorgan auto analyst Himanshu Patel estimated that Chrysler will burn through nearly $4 billion by years end.

Adding to the gloomy forecast. Chrysler renewed only $24 billion of its $30 billion credit line for the next 12 months. With reduced access to credit, the company's ability to purchase from suppliers and provide loans to dealers will suffer.

In the absence of good news, silence speaks louder than words. With every day that passes without full disclosure of their assets and liabilities, Chrysler draws closer to the day where their credit will no longer be accepted.

When suppliers demand payment in full for wheels, dashboards, computers and belts, the end will be swift and merciless. With no parts to build cars, dealers will stop placing orders. Within weeks, the money dries up and it's all over.

In the second half of 2008, Chrysler will face an intense and exceptionally brutal fight for its life. Compared to their Japanese competitors (who are still having a rough time of it), the Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge brands are ill equipped to sell on fuel economy.

Their corporate average fuel economy of 28.6 miles-per-gallon is weighed down by an abundance of SUVs, luxury sedans and light trucks. By comparison, Honda's average fuel economy topped the list last year at 33.7 miles per gallon.

Honda's class leading economy is in part buoyed by the success of the 45 mile-per-gallon Civic Hybrid. Chrysler has no direct competitor, nor the funds to build one.

In short, Chrysler needs a miracle in a market never known for charity. Or, for that matter, patience.

[Sources: AP, Cars.com, Chicago Tribune]